About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Showing posts with label financial markets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label financial markets. Show all posts

Thursday 17 March 2016

Ahead of the Curve Invites Guest Posts

Ahead of the Curve invites original non-commercial content in the areas of global financial markets and economics. Kindly view sample guest post below for format and content:
http://rajveersmarketviews.blogspot.com/2016/03/net-net-stocks-and-karnalyte-cash-cow.html
Posts for consideration can be sent to rajveersmarketviews@gmail.com

Monday 7 December 2015

Head Winds for Global Financial Markets Going Forward

1) Collapsing Oil:

Oil has entered into a free fall post OPEC and is not looking to stabilize anytime soon. This has deflationary implications:

2) A Weak High Yield Market:

Collapsing oil is definitely creating trouble for high yield issuers in the Oil market. Rig counts have almost halved and the high yield ETF is at a 52 week low. While default rates are still below long term averages there could be trouble ahead:
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)

3) Diverging Transports:

Collapsing oil should logically help the transports but this has not been the case and transports have significantly diverged from the S and P 500 with no new highs in the transports in over a year:

4) Volatility on the Up:

The Vix has also positively diverged not making new lows in each of the markets recent up moves in over a year and a half:

Thursday 10 September 2015

Interesting Charts from the World of Economics and Financial Markets-2


The first two charts are from John Rubino at dollarcollapse.com that shows that the Japanese economy hasn't recovered despite the record stimulus from the Bank of Japan:
BOJ balance sheet 2015
Japan GDP Sept 2015
2) The next chart is from Ashraf  Laidi who compares the Dollar's performance during past Fed tightening cycles and suggests the #Dollar may have peaked already:
Fed Tightening Cycles & USD Performance - Fedfunds Usdx Sep 7 (Chart 1)

3) The last chart is from John Hampson at solarcycles.net that shows that the #SandP500 is in significantly over valued territory:
29augu11


You can see some more interesting charts here.

Tuesday 1 September 2015

Interesting Charts from the World of Economics and Financial Markets-1


1) The first chart comes from Bloomberg which captures the entire set of events around China’s stock market crash:


2) The second chart is from Craig Hemke at goldseek.com highlighting a death candle on the long term S and P 500 chart that typically forms during major market tops as was the case in 2000 and 2008:


3) The third chart is from Adam Hamilton at Zealllc.com that suggests the recent spike up in the #Vix is a warning that the Fed’s grip on the markets may be reducing:

4) The last chart is from Clive Maund at clivemaund.com that shows the massive 7 year rising wedge in the S and P 500 breaking, suggesting further downside ahead:


You can see some more interesting charts here.


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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.